[NOC] Medical Mafia

Discussion in 'Forum Games' started by Pangaea, Apr 28, 2015.

  1. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    @Pangaea help why is the deadline in the past

    Okay, an observation:

    Hopkirk was almost lynched, which means if Hop does turn out to be Mafia, we already know with reasonable accuracy who the partner is.

    Why, because NotMafia and Vet are dead, and other than that, the only ones who had not voted Hop were Marquis and me. He was at L-1 for 3 days. I highly doubt that a teammate would leave him at the risk of being hammered for so long, so if Hop is mafia then Cheeze, Trace, Jeht, and ajhockey are probably clean (unless hardcore d1 bus).

    From my perspective, if Hop is mafia, then Marquis must also be mafia, although the fact that Marquis just voted Hop suggests that they are not. In fact the only person who hasn't voted Hop is me, so I could be convinced that he's clean.

    Hypothetically though, if I were to back this vote and proceed to lynch Hop, and if Hop flipped as Mafia, then it would be clear that either Marquis or me bussed. Furthermore, because we would be at 5 after the night, the village could afford to mislynch me (or Marquis) at 5 and then lynch the other at 3. In that case, village win is almost guaranteed.

    This is just a hypothetical hinging on whether Hopkirk is mafia or not, but I will take advantage of the chance that Marquis is opening with a soft bus and vote. Do not hammer until @Hopkirk has a chance to claim their role. In the statistical 33.33% chance that Hop is Mafia, village wins.

    Let's also look at the inverse of the above logic: if me and Marquis die and flip as village, then Hopkirk is also village. Keep that in mind in case there's a decision later on regarding Hopkirk's cleanliness after I get killed for scum hunting.
     
  2. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Vote Hopkirk

    Please don't hammer until Hop has a chance to claim. I will cri.
     
  3. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Btw, it's not that we'd have a 1/3 chance of winning period, it's that we'd have a 1/3 chance of winning this turn. We would survive mislynching and still have a chance to win next turn.

    Basically, unless Hop claims something good our optimal play is to lynch that.
     
  4. Hopkirk

    Hopkirk +C

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    Given that you're half claiming: Do you think you are you weak doctor?

    And mafia deosn't kill those people why?

    Anyway the most obvious scum on both wagons is still trace.
    Vote Trace of life
    Pretty obvious first scum.
     
  5. Hopkirk

    Hopkirk +C

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    Ok i have no idea what i wrote in response to WU. Proper responses:
    1.) One of those kills was BY TOWN. Are you saying that i killed someone who the vigilante targeted?
    2.) IF you're half claiming then claim. Perfect information is good for us.
    3.) Would scum Hopkirk kill people not voting for him? Really?
     
  6. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    1) ? Where do you see me saying that? That's a possibility though, will address in 3.
    2) I don't intend to claim until after you do. Whether you are mafia provides the most information, and the more people who have claimed, the easier it is for mafia to safely fake-claim. Therefore, you should be the first to claim whom you targeted last night. I will claim second if that makes you feel any better.
    3) I don't it's unlikely that the scum kill was blocked last night. Considering that CPR and Crazy both kill their targets, and that Weak suicides, there should be at least 3 kills if not 4. But considering that there's also a bodyguard and a jail-keeper, we know some of the kills were blocked. It's just as likely that one was the Mafia's kill as any other. Either way, there is no way to prove that "scum Hopkirk" killed anyone last night. Not that the cyclical argument of "I wouldn't do that as scum" holds much water really.
     
  7. Hopkirk

    Hopkirk +C

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    1.) You were saying both kills were good for me/would be picked by scumkirk. Neither were "good" for me and only one was scum killed (max).
    2.) You're right, we should massclaim results. I didn't target anyone because i'm the only Nurse in the game.
    3.) Weak suicides is 2/7 chance not 100%, crazy doesn't have to kill, there's 2 bgs and a roleblocker. This doesn't address why "both" were mafia kills. Either 1 or 0 were. You are also ignoring the ACTUAL POINT of 3, neither benefits me yet you said they do.
     
  8. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Unvote Hopkirk
     
  9. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    @3 again, the point wasn't that the kills benefit you, it's that the only people who are still alive that could be your partner were me and Marquis. However if Hop is Nurse, then the d1 bandwagon on Hop was backed by mafia. @Marquis stop voting your teammate.

    I was on Veteran Padgett, which means I am Crazy, CPR, or Amateur depending on other results.
     
  10. Hopkirk

    Hopkirk +C

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    Or you were roleblocked.

    Everyone claim results please.
     
  11. Marquis

    Marquis beez in the whazzit??

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    unvote

    i would rather not massclaim results - there will be two scum who lie, and even that small number at this many alive is enough to fuck up our chances of accurately divining the setup. massclaim happens tomorrow, but not on day 2.

    for reference, i was town in an iteration of the setup here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=50093

    playing the game without an unnecessary massclaim - which would only cause excessive confusion - is what helped us win there. also my reads were good (cry)

    we already have a likely killer claimed too, so this should stop here.
     
  12. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Not necessarily. I could be any role except Roleblocker. I can only know if I'm Vigilante is no one else targeted Vet. Therefore, mass claim helps us because the I know if I can target suspects or not. Furthermore, it is most likely that Hopkirk is dying next because he is an uncounterable role. If I get killed for being vigilante then that helps village.

    Marquis is pretty clean because I think he would have hammered a forum mafia veteran at L-1 if given the chance, especially because his partner had already voted him. I won't say that the same logic cleans me because meta-analysis can be used to define yourself as town anyway, but yeah, I don't see why I would have followed a town counter-rand with Hop at L-1.

    I also want mass claim because Mafia claiming badly will help clean townies. Faking vigilante/crazy or role blocker is risky for mafia, so we can possibly clean 1 more person if someone can be confirmed as a certain role. This means we'd have 4 fairly clean people and 3 suspects, with 1 chance for mislynch and 2 scums. Basically we couldn't lose if we lynched all suspects after cleaning one more person. Therefore if possible, we should try to confirm one more person's role.

    tl;dr all of my posts on this page: Marquis+Hopkirk are same team, if Hopkirk claims nurse then probably Marquis is town; everyone should claim their targets so we can try to confirm 1 more person's role. Marquis should claim last though.

    @TraceofLife @Cheezeburgar @Jethalal @ajhockeystar 2 of you claim, 2 of you fake-claim please.

    PS @Pangaea what is the priority for this theme? E.g., can Crazy Doctor kill scum before being killed by scum. Does Weak make mafia change target to kill or does it simply die.
     
  13. Marquis

    Marquis beez in the whazzit??

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    hopkirk did claim nurse - unless there's a counterclaim he's confirmed town, and he didn't claim it at l-1 so it's more likely real anyway.

    reassessing and the best option here is partial massclaim

    if you targeted veteran padgett, claim. if you did not, do not claim.

    this is to reduce our potential for loss with WU's claim already out, and to perhaps figure out what role he is - i think he's town but i'd like him to potentially know what he is so he can act accordingly tonight (we don't want any more than 1 kill, should today be a mislynch). a full massclaim will not be enough to determine any alignment, and so only having those who targeted Vet too claim is best.
     
  14. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Also if you targeted NM, for basically the same reasons. It's not like Mafia can kill all the people who claim a unique role.
     
  15. Pangaea

    Pangaea resto en peaco

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    If Mafia kills Crazy, then Crazy's kill won't register.
     
  16. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    Is there a really point in claiming right now if our target wasn't Vet or NM?
    or nobody for that matter
     
  17. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    AJ/ToL seems like most likely pair based on d1 vote. However, Jethalal hasn't said anything so far so

    Vote Jethalal
     
  18. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    @Cheezeburgar yes imo, there's no harm in it since vigilante and nurse are already claimed.
     
  19. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    ok well i didnt used my night action so I dont know anything, not helpful i know
     
  20. ajhockeystar

    ajhockeystar Proud Canadian

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    Didn't target either Vet or NM.
     
  21. Marquis

    Marquis beez in the whazzit??

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    vote jeth
    more inclined to sheep a townier player rn
     
  22. Jethalal

    Jethalal (~o.o)~ So Spooky ~(o.o~)

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    Wow im village believe me .-.

    Idk i should claim or not but i didn't target those two
     
  23. Jethalal

    Jethalal (~o.o)~ So Spooky ~(o.o~)

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    Vote TraceOfLife
     
  24. Hopkirk

    Hopkirk +C

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    I do not like the reason for this.

    Why not?

    @Marquis: Read on traceoflife?
     
  25. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    Bc i have no fucking clue what my action does
     
  26. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    rather not accidentally kill PR
     
  27. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Unvote Jethalal

    Vote ajhockeystar
     
  28. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Not clearing Jeth as suspect but I imagine there would be more of a defensive response from scum (and his partner). Generally he seems pretty town, more so now that he's actually posted.

    @Cheeze I don't understand why not try, I mean even if your action killed last night, it would have a decent chance to hit scum instead of village (2/8, as opposed to the 2/10 which is the lynch at 10). Plus then we would have a better idea of who's clean based on what actions did what.
     
  29. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    ok, I will make sure to use my action tonight then
     
  30. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Since we don't know if you are killer or not, please do not use it tonight. In fact you're prolly whichever killer I'm not if you're town so, unless things are going well let's nk@6 if lynch is bad.
     
  31. Marquis

    Marquis beez in the whazzit??

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    vote ajhockeystar
    i'm just blatantly sheeping because i legit agree with every one of wu's votes in the moment
     
  32. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Deadline is supposedly in 7 hours, although idk if Pangaea is going to enforce that since we haven't had any vote counts in a week.

    ajhockeystar is at L-2 (me, marquis)
    traceoflife is at L-1 (jethalal)

    Just in case you didn't know this is our last chance to lynch something
    @Hopkirk @TraceofLife @ajhockeystar @Cheezeburgar
     
  33. Pangaea

    Pangaea resto en peaco

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    yeah it's being enforced it's just that I've been sick this entire weak and it sucks and I'm too tired to do anything

    but yeah deadline is being enforced
     
  34. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    well trace hasnt claimed or said anything soooo and our claimed nurse voted him
     
  35. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    vote traceoflife
     
  36. Marquis

    Marquis beez in the whazzit??

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    Ok.

    I'm willing to believe at least Hopkirk and Jeth's votes are town-motivated.

    Not feeling good about Cheeze, but if he's scum this lynch would be significantly more likely to be a bus since Trace is pretty useless.

    Vote Trace

    party and bullshit, etc etc etc
     
  37. Cheezeburgar

    Cheezeburgar dankest john

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    I dont feel good about me either
     
  38. Whereabouts Unknown

    Whereabouts Unknown Absolutely Stunning Forum Moderator Channel Leader Forum Moderator Channel Leader

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    Yeah I didn't even see Hop's vote. I understand why Pangaea says to put them in separate posts tbh. That's a hammer then.

    If this is bad I can just kill ajhockeystar to speed up the game.
     
  39. Pangaea

    Pangaea resto en peaco

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    too sick to put a cool hammer time pic sry

    yeah trace just got hammered, will post what he was tomorrow, but please refrain from talking and treat this as twilight already
     
  40. Pangaea

    Pangaea resto en peaco

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    still sick so yeah

    The townspeople were finally able to tie down TraceofLife to the railroad track, with help from Marquis's final push. They all climbed onto the train and drove down the train tracks. TraceofLife screamed and begged for mercy, but the rest of the town didn't listen. Seconds before he was rsn over, TraceofLife screamed out his final words:

    "THE OTHER MAFIA GOON IS ---"

    The train ran over him, completely destroying his body and breaking of his bones. The only thing that was left was a bloody stain that was marked on the side of the train.

    TraceofLife was a Mafia Goon!

    It's night time! Deadline is May 15, 2015 at 7:00pm PST.