So I've seen a lot of arguing over exactly how likely it is for Lapras to beat Thunderbolt Chansey with its vaunted parafusion. I thought this was pretty silly, since the actual probability is an undisputable fact. So I figured I'd run the numbers myself and see what popped out. Now I realise why nobody did this before. There are a few simplifications and assumptions I've made, so I'll go into them first. - Simplification: Body Slam is an assumed 5HKO, and Softboiled heals 2 Body Slams. - Justification: Modelling all 703 HP values of Chansey inflates the number of states by about 140x. The probability for Body Slam to 4HKO is about 0.2%, rising to about 2% with self-confusion damage. I split the difference by assuming it was always an "almost 4HKO". - Simplification: No 255s. - Justification: I didn't want to make the 1/256 exception in every single attack throughout the entire working. Also, the 255 failure of Softboiled cannot be modelled without modelling all 703 HP values, which I just said I wasn't going to do, so leaving out the other 255s balances out. - Simplification: No PP exhaustion. - Justification: Considering this inflates the number of states by something like 150x because it eliminates the recursion that makes Markov chains so powerful. - Assumption: Lapras does not have Rest or Hyper Beam. - Justification: I don't know if Rest is optimal under any circumstances; I suspect it's not given that Chansey has a nigh-assured 3HKO and Confuse Ray lasts for a limited time. Hyper Beam is certainly very useful to Lapras in this matchup, but I've never seen a Lapras with Blizzard/Body Slam/Hyper Beam/Confuse Ray. - Assumption: Chansey has Thunderbolt and Thunder Wave, but does not have Reflect or Counter. - Justification: If Chansey does not have Thunderbolt, the result is patently obvious. One could model Ice Beam/Thunderbolt/Reflect/Softboiled Chansey vs. Lapras, but that's both somewhat more obvious and not as common. Counter is prediction-based and therefore cannot be modelled. - Assumption: Lapras uses Body Slam if it will OHKO, or if Chansey is confused; otherwise, it uses Confuse Ray. - Justification: This is obvious. - Assumption: Chansey uses Thunderbolt if it will OHKO guaranteed, or if it is at full health and Lapras is paralysed, or if it is hit once and not confused and Lapras is paralysed; it uses Thunder Wave if it is at full health and Lapras is not paralysed, or if it is hit once and not confused and Lapras is not paralysed; otherwise, it uses Softboiled. - Justification: Basic first-approximation. You could refine it recursively by looking at the states where Thunderbolt could OHKO, and checking whether Thunderbolt or Softboiled would have a greater chance to win, or by looking at the states where Lapras isn't paralysed and checking whether Thunder Wave or Softboiled would have a greater chance to win, but I've had enough maths for now. - Assumption: Chansey is paralysed. - Justification: If Chansey isn't paralysed, Lapras should really be trying to freeze it, making parafusion irrelevant. Also, I didn't want to have to do these entire calculations in duplicate to account for that. There's a couple of relevant damage calcs here, which Isa did for me. Props to Isa - every little bit helps. - Chansey Tbolt vs. Lapras 92.1% 3HKO - Chansey Tbolt vs. Lapras 1011/1521 2HKO with one crit Okay, time to get down to brass tacks. Here's the Markov chain as I elucidated it: Spoiler (0) Chansey at full, paralysed Lapras: Confuse Ray Chansey: 5/8 nothing (1), 3/8 Thunder Wave (21) (1) Chansey at full, parafused (2nd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (12|7), 3/8*3/4 Thunder Wave (32|27), 3/4*1/4 Thunder Wave+confusion ends (30|25), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (10|5) (2) Chansey at full, parafused (3rd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (13|8), 3/8*2/3 Thunder Wave (33|28), 3/4*1/3 Thunder Wave+confusion ends (30|25), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (10|5) (3) Chansey at full, parafused (4th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (14|9), 3/8*1/2 Thunder Wave (34|29), 3/4*1/2 Thunder Wave+confusion ends (30|25), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (10|5) (4) Chansey at full, parafused (5th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Thunder Wave+confusion ends (30|25), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (10|5) (5) Chansey hit once, paralysed Lapras: Confuse Ray Chansey: 5/8 nothing (6), 3/8 Thunder Wave (26) (6) Chansey hit once, parafused (2nd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (17|12), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (7|2), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (5|0), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (15|10) (7) Chansey hit once, parafused (3rd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (18|13), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (8|3), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (5|0), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (15|10) (8) Chansey hit once, parafused (4th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (19|14), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (9|4), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (5|0), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (15|10) (9) Chansey hit once, parafused (5th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (5|0), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (15|10) (10) Chansey hit twice, paralysed Lapras: Confuse Ray Chansey: 5/8 nothing (11), 3/8 Softboiled (1) (11) Chansey hit twice, parafused (2nd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win|17), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (12|7), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (10|5), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|15) (12) Chansey hit twice, parafused (3rd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|18), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (13|8), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (10|5), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|15) (13) Chansey hit twice, parafused (4th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|19), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (14|9), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (10|5), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|15) (14) Chansey hit twice, parafused (5th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (10|5), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|15) (15) Chansey hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: Confuse Ray Chansey: 5/8 nothing (16), 3/8 Softboiled (6) (16) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (2nd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|12), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|10), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win) (17) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (3rd turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|13), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|10), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win) (18) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (4th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|14), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|10), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win) (19) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (5th turn) Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|10), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win) (20) Chansey at full, paralysed; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (21), 3/8*3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (46), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (71), 3/4*1/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (45), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (70), 1/4*1/4 nothing (20) (21) Chansey at full, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (32|27|22), 3/8*3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (57|52|47), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (82|77|72), 3/4*1/4*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (55|50|45), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (30|25|20) (22) Chansey at full, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (33|28|23), 3/8*2/3*231/256 Thunderbolt (58|53|48), 3/8*2/3*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (83|78|73), 3/4*1/3*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (55|50|45), 3/4*1/3*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (30|25|20) (23) Chansey at full, parafused (4th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (34|29|24), 3/8*1/2*231/256 Thunderbolt (59|54|49), 3/8*1/2*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (84|79|74), 3/4*1/2*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (55|50|45), 3/4*1/2*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (30|25|20) (24) Chansey at full, parafused (5th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (55|50|45), 3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (30|25|20) (25) Chansey hit once, paralysed; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (26), 3/8*3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (51), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (76), 3/4*1/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (50), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (75), 1/4*1/4 nothing (25) (26) Chansey hit once, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (37|32|27), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (27|22|22), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (25|20|20), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (35|30|25) (27) Chansey hit once, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (38|33|28), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (28|23|23), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (25|20|20), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (35|30|25) (28) Chansey hit once, parafused (4th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (39|34|29), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (29|24|24), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (25|20|20), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (35|30|25) (29) Chansey hit once, parafused (5th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (25|20|20), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (35|30|25) (30) Chansey hit twice, paralysed; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (31), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (21), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (20), 1/4*1/4 nothing (30) (31) Chansey hit twice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (42|37|32), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (32|27|22), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (30|25|20), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (40|35|30) (32) Chansey hit twice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (43|38|33), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (33|28|23), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (30|25|20), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (40|35|30) (33) Chansey hit twice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (44|39|34), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (34|29|24), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (30|25|20), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (40|35|30) (34) Chansey hit twice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (30|25|20), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (40|35|30) (35) Chansey hit thrice, paralysed; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (36), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (26), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (25), 1/4*1/4 nothing (35) (36) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win|42|37), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|32|27), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30|25), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40|35) (37) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|43|38), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|33|28), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30|25), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40|35) (38) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|44|39), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|34|29), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30|25), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40|35) (39) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30|25), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40|35) (40) Chansey hit four times, paralysed; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|30), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|40) (41) Chansey hit four times, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras paralysed Unattainable (42) Chansey hit four times, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|43), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|33), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40) (43) Chansey hit four times, parafused (4th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|44), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|34), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40) (44) Chansey hit four times, parafused (5th turn); Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|30), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|40) (45) Chansey at full, paralysed; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (46), 3/8*3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (96), 3/8*3/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (121), 3/4*1/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (95), 3/4*1/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (120), 1/4*1/4 nothing (45) (46) Chansey at full, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (57|52|47), 3/8*3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (107|102|97), 3/8*3/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (132|127|122), 3/4*1/4*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (105|100|95), 3/4*1/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (55|50|45) (47) Chansey at full, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (58|53|48), 3/8*2/3*231/256 Thunderbolt (108|103|98), 3/8*2/3*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*2/3*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (133|128|123), 3/4*1/3*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (105|100|95), 3/4*1/3*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (55|50|45) (48) Chansey at full, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (59|54|49), 3/8*1/2*231/256 Thunderbolt (109|104|99), 3/8*1/2*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*1/2*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (134|129|124), 3/4*1/2*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (105|100|95), 3/4*1/2*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (55|50|45) (49) Chansey at full, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (105|100|95), 3/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (55|50|45) (50) Chansey hit once, paralysed; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (51), 3/8*3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (101), 3/8*3/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (126), 3/4*1/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (100), 3/4*1/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (125), 1/4*1/4 nothing (50) (51) Chansey hit once, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (62|57|52), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (52|47|47), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (50|45|45), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (60|55|50) (52) Chansey hit once, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (63|58|53), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (53|48|48), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (50|45|45), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (60|55|50) (53) Chansey hit once, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (64|59|54), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (54|49|49), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (50|45|45), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (60|55|50) (54) Chansey hit once, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (50|45|45), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (60|55|50) (55) Chansey hit twice, paralysed; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (56), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (46), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (45), 1/4*1/4 nothing (55) (56) Chansey hit twice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (67|62|57), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (57|52|47), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (55|50|45), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (65|60|55) (57) Chansey hit twice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (68|63|58), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (58|53|48), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (55|50|45), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (65|60|55) (58) Chansey hit twice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (69|64|59), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (59|54|49), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (55|50|45), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (65|60|55) (59) Chansey hit twice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (55|50|45), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (65|60|55) (60) Chansey hit thrice, paralysed; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (61), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (51), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (50), 1/4*1/4 nothing (60) (61) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win|67|62), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|57|52), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55|50), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65|60) (62) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|68|63), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|58|53), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55|50), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65|60) (63) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|69|64), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|59|54), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55|50), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65|60) (64) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55|50), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65|60) (65) Chansey hit four times, paralysed; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|55), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|65) (66) Chansey hit four times, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Unattainable (67) Chansey hit four times, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|68), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|58), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65) (68) Chansey hit four times, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|69), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|59), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65) (69) Chansey hit four times, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|55), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|65) (70) Chansey at full, paralysed; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (71), 3/8*3/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (121), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (120), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (70) (71) Chansey at full, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (82|77|72), 3/8*3/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (132|127|122), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (80|75|70) (72) Chansey at full, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (83|78|73), 3/8*2/3*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*2/3*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (133|128|123), 3/8*2/3*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*1/3*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (80|75|70) (73) Chansey at full, parafused (4th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (84|79|74), 3/8*1/2*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*1/2*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (134|129|124), 3/8*1/2*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*1/2*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (80|75|70) (74) Chansey at full, parafused (5th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (80|75|70) (75) Chansey hit once, paralysed; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (76), 3/8*3/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (126), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (125), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (75) (76) Chansey hit once, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (87|82|77), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (77|72|72), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (75|70|70), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (85|80|75) (77) Chansey hit once, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (88|83|78), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (78|73|73), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (75|70|70), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (85|80|75) (78) Chansey hit once, parafused (4th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (89|84|79), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (79|74|74), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (75|70|70), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (85|80|75) (79) Chansey hit once, parafused (5th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (75|70|70), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (85|80|75) (80) Chansey hit twice, paralysed; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (81), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (71), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (70), 1/4*1/4 nothing (80) (81) Chansey hit twice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (92|87|82), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (82|77|72), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (90|85|80) (82) Chansey hit twice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (93|88|83), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (83|78|73), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (90|85|80) (83) Chansey hit twice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (94|89|84), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (84|79|74), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (90|85|80) (84) Chansey hit twice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (80|75|70), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (90|85|80) (85) Chansey hit thrice, paralysed; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (86), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (76), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (75), 1/4*1/4 nothing (85) (86) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win|92|87), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|82|77), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80|75), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90|85) (87) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|93|88), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|83|78), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80|75), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90|85) (88) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|94|89), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|84|79), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80|75), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90|85) (89) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80|75), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90|85) (90) Chansey hit four times, paralysed; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|80), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|90) (91) Chansey hit four times, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Unattainable (92) Chansey hit four times, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|93), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|83), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90) (93) Chansey hit four times, parafused (4th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|94), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|84), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90) (94) Chansey hit four times, parafused (5th turn); Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|80), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|90) (95) Chansey at full, paralysed; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (96), 3/8*3/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (121), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (120), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (95) (96) Chansey at full, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (107|102|97), 3/8*3/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (132|127|122), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (105|100|95) (97) Chansey at full, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (108|103|98), 3/8*2/3*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*2/3*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (133|128|123), 3/8*2/3*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*1/3*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (105|100|95) (98) Chansey at full, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (109|104|99), 3/8*1/2*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*1/2*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (134|129|124), 3/8*1/2*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*1/2*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (105|100|95) (99) Chansey at full, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 3/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt+confusion ends (130|125|120), 3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (105|100|95) (100) Chansey hit once, paralysed; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (101), 3/8*3/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/8*3/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (126), 3/8*3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (125), 3/4*1/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (100) (101) Chansey hit once, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (112|107|102), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (102|97|97), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (100|95|95), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (110|105|100) (102) Chansey hit once, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (113|108|103), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (103|98|98), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (100|95|95), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (110|105|100) (103) Chansey hit once, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (114|109|104), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (104|99|99), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (100|95|95), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (110|105|100) (104) Chansey hit once, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (100|95|95), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (110|105|100) (105) Chansey hit twice, paralysed; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (106), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (96), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (95), 1/4*1/4 nothing (105) (106) Chansey hit twice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (117|112|107), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (107|102|97), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (105|100|95), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (115|110|105) (107) Chansey hit twice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (118|113|108), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (108|103|98), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (105|100|95), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (115|110|105) (108) Chansey hit twice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (119|114|109), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (109|104|99), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (105|100|95), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (115|110|105) (109) Chansey hit twice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (105|100|95), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (115|110|105) (110) Chansey hit thrice, paralysed; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (111), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (101), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled (100), 1/4*1/4 nothing (110) (111) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win|117|112), 3/8*3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|107|102), 3/4*1/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105|100), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115|110) (112) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|118|113), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|108|103), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105|100), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115|110) (113) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|119|114), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|109|104), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105|100), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115|110) (114) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105|100), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115|110) (115) Chansey hit four times, paralysed; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|105), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|115) (116) Chansey hit four times, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Unattainable (117) Chansey hit four times, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|118), 3/8*2/3 Softboiled (Lapras win|108), 3/4*1/3 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115) (118) Chansey hit four times, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|119), 3/8*1/2 Softboiled (Lapras win|109), 3/4*1/2 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115) (119) Chansey hit four times, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled+confusion ends (Lapras win|105), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|115) (120) Chansey at full, paralysed; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (121), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (120) (121) Chansey at full, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (132|127|122), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (130|125|120) (122) Chansey at full, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (133|128|123), 3/8*2/3 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (130|125|120) (123) Chansey at full, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (134|129|124), 3/8*1/2 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (130|125|120) (124) Chansey at full, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (130|125|120) (125) Chansey hit once, paralysed; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (126), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (125) (126) Chansey hit once, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (137|132|127), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (135|130|125) (127) Chansey hit once, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (138|133|128), 3/8*2/3 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (135|130|125) (128) Chansey hit once, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (139|134|129), 3/8*1/2 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (135|130|125) (129) Chansey hit once, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (135|130|125) (130) Chansey hit twice, paralysed; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (131), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (130) (131) Chansey hit twice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (142|137|132), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (140|135|130) (132) Chansey hit twice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (143|138|133), 3/8*2/3 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/3 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (140|135|130) (133) Chansey hit twice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (144|139|134), 3/8*1/2 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/2 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (140|135|130) (134) Chansey hit twice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (140|135|130) (135) Chansey hit thrice, paralysed; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Confuse Ray, 1/4 nothing Chansey*: 5/8*3/4 nothing (136), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing (135) (136) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*3/4 nothing (Lapras win|142|137), 3/8*3/4 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 3/4*1/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 1/4*1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140|135) (137) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|143|138), 3/8*2/3 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 3/4*1/3 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140|135) (138) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|144|139), 3/8*1/2 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 3/4*1/2 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140|135) (139) Chansey hit thrice, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win|Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140|135) (140) Chansey hit four times, paralysed; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|140) (141) Chansey hit four times, parafused (2nd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Unattainable (142) Chansey hit four times, parafused (3rd turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*2/3 nothing (Lapras win|143), 3/8*2/3 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win), 3/4*1/3 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win), 1/4*1/3 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140) (143) Chansey hit four times, parafused (4th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 5/8*1/2 nothing (Lapras win|144), 3/8*1/2 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win), 3/4*1/2 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win), 1/4*1/2 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140) (144) Chansey hit four times, parafused (5th turn); Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt+confusion ends (Lapras win|Chansey win), 1/4 nothing+confusion ends (Lapras win|140) Here's the 140 simultaneous equations I put into Mathematica: Spoiler Reduce[x0 == 5/8*x1+3/8*x21 && x1 == 15/128*5/8*3/4*x12+113/128*5/8*3/4*x7+15/128*3/8*3/4*x32+113/128*3/8*3/4*x27+15/128*3/4*1/4*x30+113/128*3/4*1/4*x25+15/128*1/4*1/4*x10+113/128*1/4*1/4*x5 && x2 == 15/128*5/8*2/3*x13+113/128*5/8*2/3*x8+15/128*3/8*2/3*x33+113/128*3/8*2/3*x28+15/128*3/4*1/3*x30+113/128*3/4*1/3*x25+15/128*1/4*1/3*x10+113/128*1/4*1/3*x5 && x3 == 15/128*5/8*1/2*x14+113/128*5/8*1/2*x9+15/128*3/8*1/2*x34+113/128*3/8*1/2*x29+15/128*3/4*1/2*x30+113/128*3/4*1/2*x25+15/128*1/4*1/2*x10+113/128*1/4*1/2*x5 && x4 == 15/128*3/4*x30+113/128*3/4*x25+15/128*1/4*x10+113/128*1/4*x5 && x5 == 5/8*x6+3/8*x26 && x6 == 15/128*5/8*3/4*x17+113/128*5/8*3/4*x12+15/128*3/8*3/4*x7+113/128*3/8*3/4*x2+15/128*3/4*1/4*x5+113/128*3/4*1/4*x0+15/128*1/4*1/4*x15+113/128*1/4*1/4*x10 && x7 == 15/128*5/8*2/3*x18+113/128*5/8*2/3*x13+15/128*3/8*2/3*x8+113/128*3/8*2/3*x3+15/128*3/4*1/3*x5+113/128*3/4*1/3*x0+15/128*1/4*1/3*x15+113/128*1/4*1/3*x10 && x8 == 15/128*5/8*1/2*x19+113/128*5/8*1/2*x14+15/128*3/8*1/2*x9+113/128*3/8*1/2*x4+15/128*3/4*1/2*x5+113/128*3/4*1/2*x0+15/128*1/4*1/2*x15+113/128*1/4*1/2*x10 && x9 == 15/128*3/4*x5+113/128*3/4*x0+15/128*1/4*x15+113/128*1/4*x10 && x10 == 5/8*x11+3/8*x1 && x11 == 15/128*5/8*3/4*a+113/128*5/8*3/4*x17+15/128*3/8*3/4*x12+113/128*3/8*3/4*x7+15/128*3/4*1/4*x10+113/128*3/4*1/4*x5+15/128*1/4*1/4*a+113/128*1/4*1/4*x15 && x12 == 15/128*5/8*2/3*a+113/128*5/8*2/3*x18+15/128*3/8*2/3*x13+113/128*3/8*2/3*x8+15/128*3/4*1/3*x10+113/128*3/4*1/3*x5+15/128*1/4*1/3*a+113/128*1/4*1/3*x15 && x13 == 15/128*5/8*1/2*a+113/128*5/8*1/2*x19+15/128*3/8*1/2*x14+113/128*3/8*1/2*x9+15/128*3/4*1/2*x10+113/128*3/4*1/2*x5+15/128*1/4*1/2*a+113/128*1/4*1/2*x15 && x14 == 15/128*3/4*x10+113/128*3/4*x5+15/128*1/4*a+113/128*1/4*x15 && x15 == 5/8*x16+3/8*x6 && x16 == 5/8*3/4*a+15/128*3/8*3/4*a+113/128*3/8*3/4*x12+15/128*3/4*1/4*a+113/128*3/4*1/4*x10+1/4*1/4*a && x17 == 5/8*2/3*a+15/128*3/8*2/3*a+113/128*3/8*2/3*x13+15/128*3/4*1/3*a+113/128*3/4*1/3*x10+1/4*1/3*a && x18 == 5/8*1/2*a+15/128*3/8*1/2*a+113/128*3/8*1/2*x14+15/128*3/4*1/2*a+113/128*3/4*1/2*x10+1/4*1/2*a && x19 == 15/128*3/4*a+113/128*3/4*x10+1/4*a && x20 == 5/8*3/4*x21+3/8*3/4*231/256*x46+3/8*3/4*25/256*x71+3/4*1/4*231/256*x45+3/4*1/4*25/256*x70+1/4*1/4*x20 && x21 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x32+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x27+1/4*5/8*3/4*x22+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*x57+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*x52+1/4*3/8*3/4*231/256*x47+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*25/256*x82+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*25/256*x77+1/4*3/8*3/4*25/256*x72+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*x50+1/4*3/4*1/4*231/256*x45+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*25/256*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*25/256*x75+1/4*3/4*1/4*25/256*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x30+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x25+1/4*1/4*1/4*x20 && x22 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x33+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x28+1/4*5/8*2/3*x23+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*x58+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*x53+1/4*3/8*2/3*231/256*x48+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*25/256*x83+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*25/256*x78+1/4*3/8*2/3*25/256*x73+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*x50+1/4*3/4*1/3*231/256*x45+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*25/256*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*25/256*x75+1/4*3/4*1/3*25/256*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x30+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x25+1/4*1/4*1/3*x20 && x23 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x34+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x29+1/4*5/8*1/2*x24+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*x59+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*x54+1/4*3/8*1/2*231/256*x49+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*25/256*x84+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*25/256*x79+1/4*3/8*1/2*25/256*x74+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*x50+1/4*3/4*1/2*231/256*x45+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*25/256*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*25/256*x75+1/4*3/4*1/2*25/256*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x30+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x25+1/4*1/4*1/2*x20 && x24 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*x50+1/4*3/4*231/256*x45+3/4*15/128*3/4*25/256*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*25/256*x75+1/4*3/4*25/256*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*x30+3/4*113/128*1/4*x25+1/4*1/4*x20 && x25 == 5/8*3/4*x26+3/8*3/4*231/256*x51+3/8*3/4*25/256*x76+3/4*1/4*231/256*x50+3/4*1/4*25/256*x75+1/4*1/4*x25 && x26 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x37+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x32+1/4*5/8*3/4*x27+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x27+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x22+1/4*3/8*3/4*x22+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x25+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x20+1/4*3/4*1/4*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x35+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x30+1/4*1/4*1/4*x25 && x27 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x38+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x33+1/4*5/8*2/3*x28+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x28+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x23+1/4*3/8*2/3*x23+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x25+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x20+1/4*3/4*1/3*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x35+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x30+1/4*1/4*1/3*x25 && x28 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x39+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x34+1/4*5/8*1/2*x29+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x29+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x24+1/4*3/8*1/2*x24+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x25+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x20+1/4*3/4*1/2*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x35+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x30+1/4*1/4*1/2*x25 && x29 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x25+3/4*113/128*3/4*x20+1/4*3/4*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*x35+3/4*113/128*1/4*x30+1/4*1/4*x25 && x30 == 5/8*3/4*x31+3/8*3/4*x21+3/4*1/4*x20+1/4*1/4*x30 && x31 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x42+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x37+1/4*5/8*3/4*x32+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x32+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x27+1/4*3/8*3/4*x22+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x30+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x25+1/4*3/4*1/4*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x40+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x35+1/4*1/4*1/4*x30 && x32 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x43+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x38+1/4*5/8*2/3*x33+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x33+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x28+1/4*3/8*2/3*x23+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x30+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x25+1/4*3/4*1/3*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x40+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x35+1/4*1/4*1/3*x30 && x33 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x44+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x39+1/4*5/8*1/2*x34+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x34+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x29+1/4*3/8*1/2*x24+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x30+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x25+1/4*3/4*1/2*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x40+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x35+1/4*1/4*1/2*x30 && x34 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x30+3/4*113/128*3/4*x25+1/4*3/4*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*x40+3/4*113/128*1/4*x35+1/4*1/4*x30 && x35 == 5/8*3/4*x36+3/8*3/4*x26+3/4*1/4*x25+1/4*1/4*x35 && x36 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x42+1/4*5/8*3/4*x37+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x32+1/4*3/8*3/4*x27+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x30+1/4*3/4*1/4*x25+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x40+1/4*1/4*1/4*x35 && x37 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x43+1/4*5/8*2/3*x38+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x33+1/4*3/8*2/3*x28+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x30+1/4*3/4*1/3*x25+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x40+1/4*1/4*1/3*x35 && x38 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x44+1/4*5/8*1/2*x39+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x34+1/4*3/8*1/2*x29+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x30+1/4*3/4*1/2*x25+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x40+1/4*1/4*1/2*x35 && x39 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*x30+1/4*3/4*x25+3/4*15/128*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*x40+1/4*1/4*x35 && x40 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x30+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x40 && x42 == 3/4*5/8*2/3*b+1/4*5/8*2/3*x43+3/4*3/8*2/3*b+1/4*3/8*2/3*x33+3/4*3/4*1/3*b+1/4*3/4*1/3*x30+3/4*1/4*1/3*b+1/4*1/4*1/3*x40 && x43 == 3/4*5/8*1/2*b+1/4*5/8*1/2*x44+3/4*3/8*1/2*b+1/4*3/8*1/2*x34+3/4*3/4*1/2*b+1/4*3/4*1/2*x30+3/4*1/4*1/2*b+1/4*1/4*1/2*x40 && x44 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x30+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x40 && x45 == 5/8*3/4*x46+3/8*3/4*231/256*x96+3/8*3/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x121+3/4*1/4*231/256*x95+3/4*1/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521*x120+1/4*1/4*x45 && x46 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x57+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x52+1/4*5/8*3/4*x47+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*x107+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*x102+1/4*3/8*3/4*231/256*x97+3/8*3/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x132+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x127+1/4*3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x122+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*x100+1/4*3/4*1/4*231/256*x95+3/4*1/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x55+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x50+1/4*1/4*1/4*x45 && x47 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x58+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x53+1/4*5/8*2/3*x48+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*x108+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*x103+1/4*3/8*2/3*231/256*x98+3/8*2/3*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*25/256*510/1521*x133+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*25/256*510/1521*x128+1/4*3/8*2/3*25/256*510/1521*x123+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*x100+1/4*3/4*1/3*231/256*x95+3/4*1/3*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*25/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*25/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*1/3*25/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x55+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x50+1/4*1/4*1/3*x45 && x48 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x59+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x54+1/4*5/8*1/2*x49+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*x109+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*x104+1/4*3/8*1/2*231/256*x99+3/8*1/2*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*25/256*510/1521*x134+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*25/256*510/1521*x129+1/4*3/8*1/2*25/256*510/1521*x124+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*x100+1/4*3/4*1/2*231/256*x95+3/4*1/2*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*25/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*25/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*1/2*25/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x55+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x50+1/4*1/4*1/2*x45 && x49 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*x100+1/4*3/4*231/256*x95+3/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*15/128*1/4*x55+3/4*113/128*1/4*x50+1/4*1/4*x45 && x50 == 5/8*3/4*x51+3/8*3/4*231/256*x101+3/8*3/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/8*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x126+3/4*1/4*231/256*x100+3/4*1/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*1/4*25/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*1/4*x50 && x51 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x62+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x57+1/4*5/8*3/4*x52+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x52+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x47+1/4*3/8*3/4*x47+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x50+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x45+1/4*3/4*1/4*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x60+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x55+1/4*1/4*1/4*x50 && x52 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x63+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x58+1/4*5/8*2/3*x53+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x53+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x48+1/4*3/8*2/3*x48+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x50+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x45+1/4*3/4*1/3*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x60+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x55+1/4*1/4*1/3*x50 && x53 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x64+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x59+1/4*5/8*1/2*x54+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x54+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x49+1/4*3/8*1/2*x49+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x50+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x45+1/4*3/4*1/2*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x60+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x55+1/4*1/4*1/2*x50 && x54 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x50+3/4*113/128*3/4*x45+1/4*3/4*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*x60+3/4*113/128*1/4*x55+1/4*1/4*x50 && x55 == 5/8*3/4*x56+3/8*3/4*x46+3/4*1/4*x45+1/4*1/4*x55 && x56 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x67+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x62+1/4*5/8*3/4*x57+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x57+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x52+1/4*3/8*3/4*x47+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x50+1/4*3/4*1/4*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x65+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x60+1/4*1/4*1/4*x55 && x57 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x68+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x63+1/4*5/8*2/3*x58+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x58+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x53+1/4*3/8*2/3*x48+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x50+1/4*3/4*1/3*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x65+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x60+1/4*1/4*1/3*x55 && x58 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x69+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x64+1/4*5/8*1/2*x59+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x59+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x54+1/4*3/8*1/2*x49+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x50+1/4*3/4*1/2*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x65+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x60+1/4*1/4*1/2*x55 && x59 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x55+3/4*113/128*3/4*x50+1/4*3/4*x45+3/4*15/128*1/4*x65+3/4*113/128*1/4*x60+1/4*1/4*x55 && x60 == 5/8*3/4*x61+3/8*3/4*x51+3/4*1/4*x50+1/4*1/4*x60 && x61 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x67+1/4*5/8*3/4*x62+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x57+1/4*3/8*3/4*x52+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x55+1/4*3/4*1/4*x50+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x65+1/4*1/4*1/4*x60 && x62 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x68+1/4*5/8*2/3*x63+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x58+1/4*3/8*2/3*x53+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x55+1/4*3/4*1/3*x50+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x65+1/4*1/4*1/3*x60 && x63 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x69+1/4*5/8*1/2*x64+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x59+1/4*3/8*1/2*x54+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x55+1/4*3/4*1/2*x50+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x65+1/4*1/4*1/2*x60 && x64 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*x55+1/4*3/4*x50+3/4*15/128*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*x65+1/4*1/4*x60 && x65 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x55+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x65 && x67 == 3/4*5/8*2/3*b+1/4*5/8*2/3*x68+3/4*3/8*2/3*b+1/4*3/8*2/3*x58+3/4*3/4*1/3*b+1/4*3/4*1/3*x55+3/4*1/4*1/3*b+1/4*1/4*1/3*x65 && x68 == 3/4*5/8*1/2*b+1/4*5/8*1/2*x69+3/4*3/8*1/2*b+1/4*3/8*1/2*x59+3/4*3/4*1/2*b+1/4*3/4*1/2*x55+3/4*1/4*1/2*b+1/4*1/4*1/2*x65 && x69 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x55+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x65 && x70 == 5/8*3/4*x71+3/8*3/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x121+3/8*3/4*25/256*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*1/4*25/256*c+1/4*1/4*x70 && x71 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x82+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x77+1/4*5/8*3/4*x72+3/8*3/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x132+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x127+1/4*3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x122+3/8*3/4*25/256*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*1/4*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x80+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x75+1/4*1/4*1/4*x70 && x72 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x83+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x78+1/4*5/8*2/3*x73+3/8*2/3*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*510/1521*x133+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*510/1521*x128+1/4*3/8*2/3*231/256*510/1521*x123+3/8*2/3*25/256*c+3/4*1/3*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*1/3*231/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*1/3*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x80+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x75+1/4*1/4*1/3*x70 && x73 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x84+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x79+1/4*5/8*1/2*x74+3/8*1/2*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*510/1521*x134+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*510/1521*x129+1/4*3/8*1/2*231/256*510/1521*x124+3/8*1/2*25/256*c+3/4*1/2*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*1/2*231/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*1/2*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x80+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x75+1/4*1/4*1/2*x70 && x74 == 3/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x125+1/4*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x120+3/4*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x80+3/4*113/128*1/4*x75+1/4*1/4*x70 && x75 == 5/8*3/4*x76+3/8*3/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/8*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x126+3/8*3/4*25/256*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*510/1521*x125+3/4*1/4*25/256*c+1/4*1/4*x75 && x76 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x87+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x82+1/4*5/8*3/4*x77+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x77+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x72+1/4*3/8*3/4*x72+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x75+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x70+1/4*3/4*1/4*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x85+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x80+1/4*1/4*1/4*x75 && x77 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x88+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x83+1/4*5/8*2/3*x78+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x78+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x73+1/4*3/8*2/3*x73+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x75+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x70+1/4*3/4*1/3*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x85+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x80+1/4*1/4*1/3*x75 && x78 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x89+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x84+1/4*5/8*1/2*x79+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x79+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x74+1/4*3/8*1/2*x74+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x75+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x70+1/4*3/4*1/2*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x85+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x80+1/4*1/4*1/2*x75 && x79 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x75+3/4*113/128*3/4*x70+1/4*3/4*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*x85+3/4*113/128*1/4*x80+1/4*1/4*x75 && x80 == 5/8*3/4*x81+3/8*3/4*x71+3/4*1/4*x70+1/4*1/4*x80 && x81 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x92+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x87+1/4*5/8*3/4*x82+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x82+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x77+1/4*3/8*3/4*x72+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x75+1/4*3/4*1/4*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x90+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x85+1/4*1/4*1/4*x80 && x82 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x93+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x88+1/4*5/8*2/3*x83+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x83+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x78+1/4*3/8*2/3*x73+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x75+1/4*3/4*1/3*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x90+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x85+1/4*1/4*1/3*x80 && x83 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x94+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x89+1/4*5/8*1/2*x84+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x84+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x79+1/4*3/8*1/2*x74+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x75+1/4*3/4*1/2*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x90+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x85+1/4*1/4*1/2*x80 && x84 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x80+3/4*113/128*3/4*x75+1/4*3/4*x70+3/4*15/128*1/4*x90+3/4*113/128*1/4*x85+1/4*1/4*x80 && x85 == 5/8*3/4*x86+3/8*3/4*x76+3/4*1/4*x75+1/4*1/4*x85 && x86 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x92+1/4*5/8*3/4*x87+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x82+1/4*3/8*3/4*x77+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x80+1/4*3/4*1/4*x75+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x90+1/4*1/4*1/4*x85 && x87 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x93+1/4*5/8*2/3*x88+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x83+1/4*3/8*2/3*x78+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x80+1/4*3/4*1/3*x75+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x90+1/4*1/4*1/3*x85 && x88 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x94+1/4*5/8*1/2*x89+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x84+1/4*3/8*1/2*x79+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x80+1/4*3/4*1/2*x75+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x90+1/4*1/4*1/2*x85 && x89 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*x80+1/4*3/4*x75+3/4*15/128*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*x90+1/4*1/4*x85 && x90 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x80+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x90 && x92 == 3/4*5/8*2/3*b+1/4*5/8*2/3*x93+3/4*3/8*2/3*b+1/4*3/8*2/3*x83+3/4*3/4*1/3*b+1/4*3/4*1/3*x80+3/4*1/4*1/3*b+1/4*1/4*1/3*x90 && x93 == 3/4*5/8*1/2*b+1/4*5/8*1/2*x94+3/4*3/8*1/2*b+1/4*3/8*1/2*x84+3/4*3/4*1/2*b+1/4*3/4*1/2*x80+3/4*1/4*1/2*b+1/4*1/4*1/2*x90 && x94 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x80+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x90 && x95 == 5/8*3/4*x96+3/8*3/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/8*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x121+3/8*3/4*25/256*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*79/1000*x120+3/4*1/4*25/256*c+1/4*1/4*x95 && x96 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x107+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x102+1/4*5/8*3/4*x97+3/8*3/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x132+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x127+1/4*3/8*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x122+3/8*3/4*25/256*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*79/1000*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*231/256*79/1000*x125+1/4*3/4*1/4*231/256*79/1000*x120+3/4*1/4*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x105+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x100+1/4*1/4*1/4*x95 && x97 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x108+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x103+1/4*5/8*2/3*x98+3/8*2/3*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*79/1000*x133+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*231/256*79/1000*x128+1/4*3/8*2/3*231/256*79/1000*x123+3/8*2/3*25/256*c+3/4*1/3*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*79/1000*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*231/256*79/1000*x125+1/4*3/4*1/3*231/256*79/1000*x120+3/4*1/3*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x105+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x100+1/4*1/4*1/3*x95 && x98 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x109+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x104+1/4*5/8*1/2*x99+3/8*1/2*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*79/1000*x134+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*231/256*79/1000*x129+1/4*3/8*1/2*231/256*79/1000*x124+3/8*1/2*25/256*c+3/4*1/2*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*79/1000*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*231/256*79/1000*x125+1/4*3/4*1/2*231/256*79/1000*x120+3/4*1/2*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x105+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x100+1/4*1/4*1/2*x95 && x99 == 3/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x130+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x125+1/4*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x120+3/4*25/256*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x105+3/4*113/128*1/4*x100+1/4*1/4*x95 && x100 == 5/8*3/4*x101+3/8*3/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/8*3/4*231/256*79/1000*x126+3/8*3/4*25/256*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*921/1000*c+3/4*1/4*231/256*79/1000*x125+3/4*1/4*25/256*c+1/4*1/4*x100 && x101 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x112+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x107+1/4*5/8*3/4*x102+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x102+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x97+1/4*3/8*3/4*x97+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x100+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x95+1/4*3/4*1/4*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x110+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x105+1/4*1/4*1/4*x100 && x102 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x113+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x108+1/4*5/8*2/3*x103+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x103+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x98+1/4*3/8*2/3*x98+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x100+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x95+1/4*3/4*1/3*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x110+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x105+1/4*1/4*1/3*x100 && x103 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x114+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x109+1/4*5/8*1/2*x104+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x104+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x99+1/4*3/8*1/2*x99+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x100+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x95+1/4*3/4*1/2*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x110+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x105+1/4*1/4*1/2*x100 && x104 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x100+3/4*113/128*3/4*x95+1/4*3/4*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*x110+3/4*113/128*1/4*x105+1/4*1/4*x100 && x105 == 5/8*3/4*x106+3/8*3/4*x96+3/4*1/4*x95+1/4*1/4*x105 && x106 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x117+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x112+1/4*5/8*3/4*x107+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*x107+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x102+1/4*3/8*3/4*x97+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x100+1/4*3/4*1/4*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x115+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x110+1/4*1/4*1/4*x105 && x107 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x118+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x113+1/4*5/8*2/3*x108+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*x108+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x103+1/4*3/8*2/3*x98+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x100+1/4*3/4*1/3*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x115+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x110+1/4*1/4*1/3*x105 && x108 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x119+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x114+1/4*5/8*1/2*x109+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*x109+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x104+1/4*3/8*1/2*x99+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x100+1/4*3/4*1/2*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x115+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x110+1/4*1/4*1/2*x105 && x109 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x105+3/4*113/128*3/4*x100+1/4*3/4*x95+3/4*15/128*1/4*x115+3/4*113/128*1/4*x110+1/4*1/4*x105 && x110 == 5/8*3/4*x111+3/8*3/4*x101+3/4*1/4*x100+1/4*1/4*x110 && x111 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x117+1/4*5/8*3/4*x112+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*x107+1/4*3/8*3/4*x102+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*x105+1/4*3/4*1/4*x100+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x115+1/4*1/4*1/4*x110 && x112 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x118+1/4*5/8*2/3*x113+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*x108+1/4*3/8*2/3*x103+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*x105+1/4*3/4*1/3*x100+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x115+1/4*1/4*1/3*x110 && x113 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x119+1/4*5/8*1/2*x114+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*x109+1/4*3/8*1/2*x104+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*x105+1/4*3/4*1/2*x100+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x115+1/4*1/4*1/2*x110 && x114 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*x105+1/4*3/4*x100+3/4*15/128*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*x115+1/4*1/4*x110 && x115 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x105+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x115 && x117 == 3/4*5/8*2/3*b+1/4*5/8*2/3*x118+3/4*3/8*2/3*b+1/4*3/8*2/3*x108+3/4*3/4*1/3*b+1/4*3/4*1/3*x105+3/4*1/4*1/3*b+1/4*1/4*1/3*x115 && x118 == 3/4*5/8*1/2*b+1/4*5/8*1/2*x119+3/4*3/8*1/2*b+1/4*3/8*1/2*x109+3/4*3/4*1/2*b+1/4*3/4*1/2*x105+3/4*1/4*1/2*b+1/4*1/4*1/2*x115 && x119 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x105+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x115 && x120 == 5/8*3/4*x121+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+1/4*1/4*x120 && x121 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x132+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x127+1/4*5/8*3/4*x122+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x130+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x125+1/4*1/4*1/4*x120 && x122 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x133+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x128+1/4*5/8*2/3*x123+3/8*2/3*c+3/4*1/3*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x130+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x125+1/4*1/4*1/3*x120 && x123 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x134+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x129+1/4*5/8*1/2*x124+3/8*1/2*c+3/4*1/2*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x130+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x125+1/4*1/4*1/2*x120 && x124 == 3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x130+3/4*113/128*1/4*x125+1/4*1/4*x120 && x125 == 5/8*3/4*x126+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+1/4*1/4*x125 && x126 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x137+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x132+1/4*5/8*3/4*x127+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x135+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x130+1/4*1/4*1/4*x125 && x127 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x138+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x133+1/4*5/8*2/3*x128+3/8*2/3*c+3/4*1/3*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x135+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x130+1/4*1/4*1/3*x125 && x128 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x139+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x134+1/4*5/8*1/2*x129+3/8*1/2*c+3/4*1/2*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x135+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x130+1/4*1/4*1/2*x125 && x129 == 3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x135+3/4*113/128*1/4*x130+1/4*1/4*x125 && x130 == 5/8*3/4*x131+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+1/4*1/4*x130 && x131 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*x142+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x137+1/4*5/8*3/4*x132+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*x140+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x135+1/4*1/4*1/4*x130 && x132 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*x143+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x138+1/4*5/8*2/3*x133+3/8*2/3*c+3/4*1/3*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*x140+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x135+1/4*1/4*1/3*x130 && x133 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*x144+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x139+1/4*5/8*1/2*x134+3/8*1/2*c+3/4*1/2*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*x140+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x135+1/4*1/4*1/2*x130 && x134 == 3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x140+3/4*113/128*1/4*x135+1/4*1/4*x130 && x135 == 5/8*3/4*x136+3/8*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*c+1/4*1/4*x135 && x136 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*3/4*x142+1/4*5/8*3/4*x137+3/4*15/128*3/8*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*3/4*c+1/4*3/8*3/4*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/4*c+1/4*3/4*1/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/4*x140+1/4*1/4*1/4*x135 && x137 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*2/3*x143+1/4*5/8*2/3*x138+3/4*15/128*3/8*2/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*2/3*c+1/4*3/8*2/3*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/3*c+1/4*3/4*1/3*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/3*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/3*x140+1/4*1/4*1/3*x135 && x138 == 3/4*15/128*5/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*5/8*1/2*x144+1/4*5/8*1/2*x139+3/4*15/128*3/8*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/8*1/2*c+1/4*3/8*1/2*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*1/2*c+1/4*3/4*1/2*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*1/2*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*1/2*x140+1/4*1/4*1/2*x135 && x139 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*b+3/4*113/128*3/4*c+1/4*3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*b+3/4*113/128*1/4*x140+1/4*1/4*x135 && x140 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x140 && x142 == 3/4*5/8*2/3*b+1/4*5/8*2/3*x143+3/4*3/8*2/3*b+1/4*3/8*2/3*c+3/4*3/4*1/3*b+1/4*3/4*1/3*c+3/4*1/4*1/3*b+1/4*1/4*1/3*x140 && x143 == 3/4*5/8*1/2*b+1/4*5/8*1/2*x144+3/4*3/8*1/2*b+1/4*3/8*1/2*c+3/4*3/4*1/2*b+1/4*3/4*1/2*c+3/4*1/4*1/2*b+1/4*1/4*1/2*x140 && x144 == 3/4*3/4*b+1/4*3/4*c+3/4*1/4*b+1/4*1/4*x140, {x0, x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7, x8, x9, x10, x11, x12, x13, x14, x15, x16, x17, x18, x19, x20, x21, x22, x23, x24, x25, x26, x27, x28, x29, x30, x31, x32, x33, x34, x35, x36, x37, x38, x39, x40, x42, x43, x44, x45, x46, x47, x48, x49, x50, x51, x52, x53, x54, x55, x56, x57, x58, x59, x60, x61, x62, x63, x64, x65, x67, x68, x69, x70, x71, x72, x73, x74, x75, x76, x77, x78, x79, x80, x81, x82, x83, x84, x85, x86, x87, x88, x89, x90, x92, x93, x94, x95, x96, x97, x98, x99, x100, x101, x102, x103, x104, x105, x106, x107, x108, x109, x110, x111, x112, x113, x114, x115, x117, x118, x119, x120, x121, x122, x123, x124, x125, x126, x127, x128, x129, x130, x131, x132, x133, x134, x135, x136, x137, x138, x139, x140, x142, x143, x144}] Here's what Mathematica spat out: Spoiler x0 == (5142175855881592750910450278590166654571522441385625 a) / > 54912304248954538795489937340192423398464989015152281 + > (1840561346815806553411760798027890691825539863251417120654787757846530678768289976080210618586\ > 9388311061619282625178579085441866497510333781680016986203046864744380048553570431978458346\ > 4980559941217294655104992420291469408486706961794372764837949227087115938808888409721181483 > b) / 104187228975551907725009192969949798568335253390023767910516238520914446232151988149128\ > 584486453840636983234683103122922646252115682463665146830035872881815581229069032900735497966\ > 988643531117454420134145152156172877845652091537786330759703973030839381877296598089728000000\ > 0000 + (7602516728223144429136722882455799788483616554650953383124700099178703224163642153944\ > 0273668655871539318943478991848025614795312843650680493623454856991951533448517739622070696\ > 6081894747421412777148409553881209216599963064463833611275070255865524985327578809546408870\ > 278818517 c) / > 1041872289755519077250091929699497985683352533900237679105162385209144462321519881491285844864\ > 538406369832346831031229226462521156824636651468300358728818155812290690329007354979669886435\ > 311174544201341451521561728778456520915377863307597039730308393818772965980897280000000000 && > x1 == (8227481369410548401456720445744266647314435906217000 a) / > 54912304248954538795489937340192423398464989015152281 + > (7662821486767818657675725392094776286655925733858414446419514004517095061100364856440305490954\ > 8662191571298443615278188034091309457663005940206906630492867578792921517819794045006058678\ > 9866255760367114702248857651906897686310528649496782506951811600408334576898170184767640765\ > 43 b) / 42675088988386061404163765440491437493590119788553735336147451298166557176689454345\ > 883068205651493124908332926199039149115904866583537117244141582693532391662071426675876141259\ > 967278548390345709330486945854323168410765579096693877281079174747353431810816940686577552588\ > 8000000000 + (2861828159277581365905575799202827514894408989337431968546126683638354353914067\ > 2943356699647115912201443276011372383247383395386957134711374957243027987552395117549337151\ > 1240095495725191951057008688514765050372329097885942261650141330636878868927108942359248472\ > 845291411235923457 c) / > 4267508898838606140416376544049143749359011978855373533614745129816655717668945434588306820565\ > 149312490833292619903914911590486658353711724414158269353239166207142667587614125996727854839\ > 03457093304869458543231684107655790966938772810791747473534318108169406865775525888000000000\ > && x2 == (6421942165113021318195682082620438102429602863273625 a) / > 54912304248954538795489937340192423398464989015152281 + > (9390413663790963627604422831449869256181546120440778007411337003974302386231872649125668089037\ > 3230664437398255171931303221469325368180595070661986390270237409544573234497365226415447765\ > 58497914585178373989802421901642587185532507893155634402000774023355699446912337112399727 b) > / 520936144877759538625045964849748992841676266950118839552581192604572231160759940745642922\ > 432269203184916173415515614613231260578412318325734150179364409077906145345164503677489834943\ > 21765558727210067072576078086438922826045768893165379851986515419690938648299044864000000000\ > + (3661090176664648442137988900026344400272156387764320389470353911747950997253222057475454007\ > 7403721043346972827546104543157144050568924837208595322054144442697802962951282955084525500\ > 0393001373858529401529731927872421743421001837061113830994320593230599413090717805268876002\ > 73 c) / 52093614487775953862504596484974899284167626695011883955258119260457223116075994074\ > 564292243226920318491617341551561461323126057841231832573415017936440907790614534516450367748\ > 983494321765558727210067072576078086438922826045768893165379851986515419690938648299044864000\ > 000000 && x3 == (4906402211664663449231710521519438427239268425897625 a) / > 54912304248954538795489937340192423398464989015152281 + > (7577669863904692145722807672660476719707288415893472043897399709397415696004458587634124953887\ > 9170311460300763948228688009285287039898937323271234590471546420277263519049954897873534774\ > 88992036769280685199833374925728088938176460868324376938110339968179325067510872492253561 b) > / 416748915902207630900036771879799194273341013560095071642064954083657784928607952596514337\ > 945815362547932938732412491690585008462729854660587320143491527262324916276131602941991867954\ > 57412446981768053658060862469151138260836615114532303881589212335752750918639235891200000000\ > + (3037357940123485458312336025913287474092426602753927747135527597851924187804594354750478976\ > 8988838920755334925264452288969758743779383023090981314267298321528963886403179562114753569\ > 5282747329790993284770591039826033751227285293653264944317724938117625394938406786187077464\ > 39 c) / 41674891590220763090003677187979919427334101356009507164206495408365778492860795259\ > 651433794581536254793293873241249169058500846272985466058732014349152726232491627613160294199\ > 186795457412446981768053658060862469151138260836615114532303881589212335752750918639235891200\ > 000000 && x4 == (3014733370581001964280550642928245948543575204009625 a) / > 54912304248954538795489937340192423398464989015152281 + > (4708201770700076389074476961448175492232071679326586187434468917418585227577372960333527353876\ > 4494564214176841791333587731620059817747080381353431926969840459986269121891109417877953000\ > 87845038600147498385516597907705323260605418857425744153185706836770334124466995360116329 b) > / 239855491166738204834553537772546298862354540178471983678886304508580020102795943940439906\ > 731404525207443417975489203850696407748333729301057450442297281877597074115759195937837046304\ > 79086300421161469731258050341957489646524670569514995039763575445037554485547761664000000000\ > + (1796051979115258698933018371020389045374565000969485941313648184070923315936049445638085278\ > 3702361309895571769781779574571677833825487346222057245945473420714925154044633759570389855\ > 1466634339939154373984323878667371011007645966696487063733183494140281288040553586686398836\ > 71 c) / 23985549116673820483455353777254629886235454017847198367888630450858002010279594394\ > 043990673140452520744341797548920385069640774833372930105745044229728187759707411575919593783\ > 704630479086300421161469731258050341957489646524670569514995039763575445037554485547761664000\ > 000000 && x5 == (10878616670728096299781969929094919790803654975001625 a) / > 54912304248954538795489937340192423398464989015152281 + > (5864583955078102644470561651610950819983309328526890552639972967045679437060359062691810989561\ > 5374739725735904597692250097773253249877347713167942364906722175582321983521480403494044651\ > 15293558444123385793337603993193475589934309745886318500126348512334354153215037716941143389 > 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100055110467756040781721176134123520 1815767425115854611531957 b 45211199456135005311350603 c > x125 == --------------------------- + ---------------------------- && 47026966881250859922882560 47026966881250859922882560 1815767425115854611531957 b 21697716015509575349909323 c > x126 == --------------------------- + ---------------------------- && 23513483440625429961441280 23513483440625429961441280 10147472941671735133607070867 b 182474983403931787110519894893 c > x127 == ------------------------------- + -------------------------------- && 192622456345603522244126965760 192622456345603522244126965760 97010509871643654974137317 b 2912715370528411380090346523 c > x128 == ---------------------------- + ------------------------------ && 3009725880400055035064483840 3009725880400055035064483840 2186222958706959436219497 b 91867710803794760409545623 c > x129 == --------------------------- + ---------------------------- && 94053933762501719845765120 94053933762501719845765120 8563780035865611 b 79848919873669109 c > x130 == ------------------ + ------------------- && 88412699909534720 88412699909534720 8563780035865611 b 35642569918901749 c > x131 == ------------------ + ------------------- && 44206349954767360 44206349954767360 56722023335254871541 b 305416395494199341579 c > x132 == ---------------------- + ----------------------- && 362138418829454213120 362138418829454213120 2375161352766892089 b 20258489824073996231 c > x133 == --------------------- + ---------------------- && 22633651176840888320 22633651176840888320 10569994226931681 b 166255405592137759 c 36295653 b 129923987 c > x134 == ------------------- + -------------------- && x135 == ---------- + ----------- && 176825399819069440 176825399819069440 166219640 166219640 36295653 b 46814167 c 274743359043 b 406092286397 c > x136 == ---------- + ---------- && x137 == -------------- + -------------- && 83109820 83109820 680835645440 680835645440 7334531061 b 13941582859 c 155554971 b 509323589 c 4 b c > x138 == ------------ + ------------- && x139 == ----------- + ----------- && x140 == --- + - && 21276113920 21276113920 664878560 664878560 5 5 1093 b 187 c 67 b 13 c 4 b c > x142 == ------ + ----- && x143 == ---- + ---- && x144 == --- + - 1280 1280 80 80 5 5 But most of you aren't maths majors like me, and don't give a crap about any of that. I just put it in so you could see why this took a few weeks. (If you do find any typos in that huge morass of maths, though, let me know.) So here's the relevant shit. Paralysed Chansey vs. healthy Lapras 9.4% Lapras wins without being paralysed. 17.7% Lapras wins but is paralysed. 73.0% Chansey wins. Chansey switching into Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed 19.8% Lapras wins without being paralysed. 17.6% Lapras wins but is paralysed. 62.6% Chansey wins. Paralysed Chansey vs. paralysed Lapras 13.3% Lapras wins. 86.7% Chansey wins. Chansey switching into paralysed Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed 19.8% Lapras wins. 80.2% Chansey wins. Honestly, Lapras does better than I thought (my initial estimate was "between 2 and 3 freeze chances" ie 17-25%). Oh well, now we know. m9m out.
Holy shit, that is a ridiculous amount of calculation. Massive props for putting that kind of effort in. It's pretty interesting (tbh, it really makes me think of more questions), especially looking at how well healthy Lap does vs. para'd Chansey. Like Marco said, it'd be pretty interesting seeing how residual damage might change the matchup, like if BSlam is already a 4HKO or even a 3HKO or something, but who knows. For me personally, the next question this leads me to is how effectively can Lapras support other matchups with parafusion/weakening Chansey? The main thing I'm thinking of is Tauros, as it's clear Lapras can potentially allow Tauros to come in and wreck stuff with a comparatively low chance of getting screwed by paralysis. Maybe not always something you'd look to do if you're relying on the bull to clean up lategame, but certainly an option if you've got a backup sweeper.
Ran the Hyper Beam non-Confuse Ray Lapras vs. Chansey calcs for comparison. Markov chain Spoiler (0) Chansey at full Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Thunder Wave (7|6), 1/4 nothing (2|1) (1) Chansey hit once Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (1|0), 1/4 nothing (3|2) (2) Chansey hit twice Lapras: 15/128 critical Body Slam, 113/128 Body Slam Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (2|1), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|3) (3) Chansey hit thrice Lapras: 0.9 Hyper Beam, 0.1 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|1), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|3) (4) Chansey hit four times lol (5) Chansey at full; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (17|16|15), 3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (12|11|10), 1/4 nothing (7|6|5) (6) Chansey hit once; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (6|5|5), 1/4 nothing (8|7|6) (7) Chansey hit twice; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (7|6|5), 1/4 nothing (9}8}7) (8) Chansey hit thrice; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 0.675 Hyper Beam, 0.325 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|6), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|8) (9) Chansey hit four times; Lapras paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|7), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|9) (10) Chansey at full; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*25/256*1011/1521 fatal critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*25/256*510/1521 non-fatal critical Thunderbolt (27|26|25), 3/4*231/256 Thunderbolt (22|21|20), 1/4 nothing (12|11|10) (11) Chansey hit once; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (11|10|10), 1/4 nothing (13|12|11) (12) Chansey hit twice; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (12|11|10), 1/4 nothing (14|13|12) (13) Chansey hit thrice; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 0.675 Hyper Beam, 0.325 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|11), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|13) (14) Chansey hit four times; Lapras hit once, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|12), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|14) (15) Chansey at full; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*231/256*1011/1521 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*231/256*510/1521 non-fatal Thunderbolt (27|26|25), 1/4 nothing (17|16|15) (16) Chansey hit once; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (16|15|15), 1/4 nothing (18|17|16) (17) Chansey hit twice; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (17|16|15), 1/4 nothing (19|18|17) (18) Chansey hit thrice; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 0.675 Hyper Beam, 0.325 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|16), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|18) (19) Chansey hit four times; Lapras critted, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|17), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|19) (20) Chansey at full; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4*25/256 critical Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*231/256*0.921 fatal Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 3/4*231/256*0.079 non-fatal Thunderbolt (27|26|25), 1/4 nothing (22|21|20) (21) Chansey hit once; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (21|20|20), 1/4 nothing (23|22|21) (22) Chansey hit twice; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (22|21|20), 1/4 nothing (24|23|22) (23) Chansey hit thrice; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 0.675 Hyper Beam, 0.325 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|21), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|23) (24) Chansey hit four times; Lapras hit twice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Softboiled (Lapras win|22), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|24) (25) Chansey at full; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing (27|26|25) (26) Chansey hit once; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing (28|27|26) (27) Chansey hit twice; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4*15/128 critical Body Slam, 3/4*113/128 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt (Chansey win), 1/4 nothing (29|28|27) (28) Chansey hit thrice; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 0.675 Hyper Beam, 0.325 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|28) (29) Chansey hit four times; Lapras hit thrice, paralysed Lapras: 3/4 Body Slam, 1/4 nothing Chansey: 3/4 Thunderbolt (Lapras win|Chansey win), 1/4 nothing (Lapras win|29) Equation form input Spoiler Reduce[x0 == 15/128*3/4*x7+113/128*3/4*x6+15/128*1/4*x2+113/128*1/4*x1 && x1 == 15/128*3/4*x1+113/128*3/4*x0+15/128*1/4*x3+113/128*1/4*x2 && x2 == 15/128*3/4*x2+113/128*3/4*x1+15/128*1/4*a+113/128*1/4*x3 && x3 == 0.9*a+0.1*3/4*x1+0.1*1/4*x3 && x5 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*25/256*x17+3/4*113/128*3/4*25/256*x16+1/4*3/4*25/256*x15+3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*x12+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*x11+1/4*3/4*231/256*x10+3/4*15/128*1/4*x7+3/4*113/128*1/4*x6+1/4*1/4*x5 && x6 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x6+3/4*113/128*3/4*x5+1/4*3/4*x5+3/4*15/128*1/4*x8+3/4*113/128*1/4*x7+1/4*1/4*x6 && x7 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x7+3/4*113/128*3/4*x6+1/4*3/4*x5+3/4*15/128*1/4*x9+3/4*113/128*1/4*x8+1/4*1/4*x7 && x8 == 0.675*b+0.325*3/4*x6+0.325*1/4*x8 && x9 == 3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x7+1/4*1/4*x9 && x10 == 3/4*25/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x27+3/4*113/128*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x26+1/4*3/4*25/256*510/1521*x25+3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*x22+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*x21+1/4*3/4*231/256*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*x12+3/4*113/128*1/4*x11+1/4*1/4*x10 && x11 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x11+3/4*113/128*3/4*x10+1/4*3/4*x10+3/4*15/128*1/4*x13+3/4*113/128*1/4*x12+1/4*1/4*x11 && x12 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x12+3/4*113/128*3/4*x11+1/4*3/4*x10+3/4*15/128*1/4*x14+3/4*113/128*1/4*x13+1/4*1/4*x12 && x13 == 0.675*b+0.325*3/4*x11+0.325*1/4*x13 && x14 == 3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x12+1/4*1/4*x14 && x15 == 3/4*25/256*c+3/4*231/256*1011/1521*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x27+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x26+1/4*3/4*231/256*510/1521*x25+3/4*15/128*1/4*x17+3/4*113/128*1/4*x16+1/4*1/4*x15 && x16 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x16+3/4*113/128*3/4*x15+1/4*3/4*x15+3/4*15/128*1/4*x18+3/4*113/128*1/4*x17+1/4*1/4*x16 && x17 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x17+3/4*113/128*3/4*x16+1/4*3/4*x15+3/4*15/128*1/4*x19+3/4*113/128*1/4*x18+1/4*1/4*x17 && x18 == 0.675*b+0.325*3/4*x16+0.325*1/4*x18 && x19 == 3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x17+1/4*1/4*x19 && x20 == 3/4*25/256*c+3/4*231/256*0.921*c+3/4*15/128*3/4*231/256*0.079*x27+3/4*113/128*3/4*231/256*0.079*x26+1/4*3/4*231/256*0.079*x25+3/4*15/128*1/4*x22+3/4*113/128*1/4*x21+1/4*1/4*x20 && x21 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x21+3/4*113/128*3/4*x20+1/4*3/4*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*x23+3/4*113/128*1/4*x22+1/4*1/4*x21 && x22 == 3/4*15/128*3/4*x22+3/4*113/128*3/4*x21+1/4*3/4*x20+3/4*15/128*1/4*x24+3/4*113/128*1/4*x23+1/4*1/4*x22 && x23 == 0.675*b+0.325*3/4*x21+0.325*1/4*x24 && x24 == 3/4*b+1/4*3/4*x22+1/4*1/4*x24 && x25 == 3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x27+3/4*113/128*1/4*x26+1/4*1/4*x25 && x26 == 3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x28+3/4*113/128*1/4*x27+1/4*1/4*x26 && x27 == 3/4*c+3/4*15/128*1/4*x29+3/4*113/128*1/4*x28+1/4*1/4*x27 && x28 == 0.675*b+0.325*3/4*c+0.325*1/4*x28 && x29 == 3/4*b+1/4*3/4*c+1/4*1/4*x29, {x0, x1, x2, x3, x5, x6, x7, x8, x9, x10, x11, x12, x13, x14, x15, x16, x17, x18, x19, x20, x21, x22, x23, x24, x25, x26, x27, x28, x29}] Output Spoiler x0 == 0. + 0.0441267 a + 0.198101 b + 0.757772 c && > x1 == 0. + 0.151092 a + 0.175933 b + 0.672975 c && > x2 == 0. + 0.367968 a + 0.130986 b + 0.501046 c && > x3 == 0. + 0.934699 a + 0.0135333 b + 0.0517673 c && x5 == 0. + 0.145421 b + 0.854579 c && > x6 == 0. + 0.193285 b + 0.806715 c && x7 == 0. + 0.31242 b + 0.68758 c && > x8 == 0. + 0.785974 b + 0.214026 c && x9 == 0. + 0.862484 b + 0.137516 c && > x10 == 0. + 0.0853549 b + 0.914645 c && x11 == 0. + 0.136583 b + 0.863417 c && > x12 == 0. + 0.264092 b + 0.735908 c && x13 == 0. + 0.77093 b + 0.22907 c && > x14 == 0. + 0.852818 b + 0.147182 c && x15 == 0. + 0.0310178 b + 0.968982 c && > x16 == 0. + 0.0852896 b + 0.91471 c && x17 == 0. + 0.220373 b + 0.779627 c && > x18 == 0. + 0.757322 b + 0.242678 c && x19 == 0. + 0.844075 b + 0.155925 c && > x20 == 0. + 0.0210445 b + 0.978956 c && x21 == 0. + 0.0763762 b + 0.923624 c && > x22 == 0. + 0.214023 b + 0.785977 c && x23 == 0. + 0.762095 b + 0.237905 c && > x24 == 0. + 0.842805 b + 0.157195 c && x25 == 0. + 0.0111485 b + 0.988852 c && > x26 == 0. + 0.0434335 b + 0.956566 c && x27 == 0. + 0.148469 b + 0.851531 c && > x28 == 0. + 0.734694 b + 0.265306 c && x29 == 0. + 0.8 b + 0.2 c Relevant: Paralysed Chansey vs. Hyper Beam Lapras 4.4% Lapras wins without being paralysed 19.8% Lapras wins but is paralysed 75.8% Chansey wins Chansey switching into Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed 15.1% Lapras wins without being paralysed 17.6% Lapras wins but is paralysed 67.3% Chansey wins Paralysed Chansey vs. paralysed Hyper Beam Lapras 14.5% Lapras wins 85.5% Chansey wins Chansey switching into paralysed Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed 19.3% Lapras wins 80.7% Chansey wins Chansey at 70-81% switching into Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed 36.8% Lapras wins without being paralysed 13.1% Lapras wins but is paralysed 50.1% Chansey wins Chansey at 45-60% switching into Hyper Beam Lapras Body Slam, becomes paralysed or was already paralysed 93.5% Lapras wins without being paralysed 1.4% Lapras wins but is paralysed 5.2% Chansey wins Notes: - When Lapras is unparalysed and Chansey's at high health, Confuse Ray is slightly better. - When Chansey is brought into KO range from Hyper Beam, Hyper Beam is obviously better. - When Lapras is paralysed, Hyper Beam is slightly better than Confuse Ray.